The NFL season is taking shape which means picking games against the spread should be getting easier. The bad teams (Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee) are a combined 5-39 straight up and 12-32 against the number. That’s just over a quarter of the league you can bet against every week.. Unless two of the teams play each other like the Panthers and Bucs do this week.

I was 6-6 last week keeping my season record six games above .500 at 38-32. I like almost every home favorite this week so you know I’m about to go in the tank.

I don’t pick sides in games involving the Philadelphia Eagles.
My winners are in bold type.

Kansas City Chiefs +6 at Washington Redskins

Houston Texans +5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns +14 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Minnesota Vikings

St. Louis Rams +9.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants +3 at New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions +13 at Green Bay Packers

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Seattle Seahawks

Buffalo Bills +9.5 at New York Jets

Tennessee Titans +9 at New England Patriots

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos +4 at San Diego Chargers

Last week was opposite week because I predicted I would go 5-9 against the spread with my NFL picks but I turned in a 9-5 performance. Woulda, coulda, shoulda… Why the hell was I rolling with the Titans and Redskins? Because I thought they would play like desperate teams and come out and win and cover. The Skins outlasted Tampa for the win but the line was 7.5 so who cares if they win if they didn’t cover? Vince Young’s second go as the Titans starting quarterback can’t be far away after that tank job in Jacksonville.

My season record is 32-26. Not great but I could be under .500 so I’ll take it. No predictions this week about how I’ll do against the spread this week. We’ve got some high numbers and home dogs going this week which means we’re in for a few “shockers”.

As always, I don’t pick games involving the Philadelphia Eagles.
My winners are in bold type.

Minnesota Vikings -10 at St. Louis Rams

Dallas Cowboys -8.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

Washington Redskins +3.5 at Carolina Panthers

Oakland Raiders +14.5 at New York Giants

Cleveland Browns +6 at Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 at Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 at Detroit Lions

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 at San Francisco 49ers

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos

Houston Texans +5.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (OFF)

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Tennessee Titans

New York Jets -2 at Miami Dolphins

It wasn’t as big of a miracle as Brett Favre’s last-minute touchdown pass against the Niners, but somehow I finished last week three games above .500. I went 9-6 to raise my season record to 23-21 which means I’ll probably go 5-9 this week.

The NFL lines are all over the place this week. We’ve got big road favorites, big road dogs, and a few games that should separate the real from the fake.

My picks are in bold type.

Oakland Raiders +9 at Houston Texans

Tennessee Titans -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Baltimore Ravens +1.5 at New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at Cleveland Browns

New York Giants -9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Detroit Lions +10 at Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 at Washington Redskins

Seattle Seahawks +10.5 at Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets +7 at New Orleans Saints

Buffalo Bills -1.5 at Miami Dolphins

St. Louis Rams +9.5 at San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Denver Broncos

San Diego Chargers +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay Packers +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings

If you don’t like how my picks look you can take a look at the Shaw’s Picks from Betus.com:

I’m off to a pretty bad start with my 2009 NFL picks. I’m the Jamarcus Russell of point spreads. Unlike Russell, I’m not one defensive stand from being perfect on the season. I went 6-9 last week and after two rounds I’m 14-15.

Just under .500 isn’t terrible, it’s the teams I’ve picked. For some reason I thought the Lions could stay within 10 of the Vikings. And the Redskins offense doesn’t look like it could outscore a bad college team by 10 points but I had them stomping the Rams. Hopefully I’ve gotten things straightened out. Like J-Russ, I’m feeling good about myself this weekend.

As always I don’t pick a side in games involving the Philadelphia Eagles. My winners are in bold type.

Tennessee Titans +3 at New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns +13.5 at Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants -6.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Washington Redskins -6.5 at Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers -6.5 at St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 at New England Patriots

Chicago Bears -2.5 at Seattle Seahawks

New Orleans Saints -6 at Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins +6 at San Diego Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Denver Broncos +1.5 at Oakland Raiders

Indianapolis Colts +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers +8.5 at Dallas Cowboys

If you’re a little afraid of my picks due to my slow start you can check out the Shaw’s picks from Betus.com below.

I’m pressed for time so no beating around the bush this week. I don’t pick games that involve the Philadelphia Eagles. The home team is in bold type.

Miami +7 over Buffalo

Cincinnati -9′ over St. Louis

Dallas -11 over Detroit

Green Bay -10′ over Oakland

Houston +3 over Tampa Bay

Jacksonville -10′ over Carolina

New England -10′ over Pittsburgh

San Diego -1 over Tennessee

Minnesota -8′ over San Francisco

Seattle -6′ over Arizona

Kansas City +6′ over Denver 

Cleveland -3′ over NYJ

Baltimore +9 over Indianapolis

Atlanta +3′ over New Orleans

Now, before I get to my picks.. Why does a woman take your number or give you her number, with no actual intent of ever speaking to you? Fellas, it’s happened to all of us. You meet a PYT, you’re choppin’ it up, things are going good. The numbers get exchanged, and you never hold a meaningful conversation with her again. You might talk to her for about 20 seconds a couple of times, but you’ll always be calling at a bad time… Or you just get her voicemail, leave a couple of non-Swingers style messages, and she’s still not calling back.. I hate that. It’s like having money on a team that’s favored by 3 and kicks a late field goal to win by 1 or 2. If you’re not gonna cover, why bother winning? If you don’t wanna talk, why bother with the number thing?

All right.. Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, Arizona, Baltimore, and Seattle have bye weeks. Remember, I don’t pick for or against the Philadelphia Eagles.. But they sure as hell better find a way to beat the Vikings if they have any hope of saving their season.

The home team is in bold type.

Indianapolis -7 over Carolina: This has all the makings of a trap game for the Colts. Road game, on grass, against a team coming off a bye, and the week before the showdown with New England. I think Indy stays focused.

Detroit +5 over Chicago: The Bears pulled out a miracle win last week, but they don’t look like a team that’s ready to string victories together. This seems like a field goal game to me.

Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cincinnati: The Bengals whooping up on the Jets does not mean that they’re ready to turn things around. The positive for Cincy, the Steelers are 1-2 on the road. The negative for Cincy, they’re still the Bengals.

NYG -9.5 over Miami: The game’s being played in London, but Miami’s considered the home team.. I have no idea what playing in England is gonna do to each team so I’m going with the Giants being able to handle the change better.

Cleveland -3 over St. Louis: The Browns aren’t that good, but the Rams are that bad. Cleveland could win this game by double digits.. Of course with my recent pick history, the Rams will probably pick up their first win.

Tennessee -7 over Oakland: Wow, a home team. I remember when Eddie George useta go off against the Raiders.. Eddie’s not walking through that door, but they won’t need him as long as they have Rob Bironas.

Buffalo +3 over NYJ: This game was literally a coin flip for me. I can make an argument either way, but the quarter landed on heads.

Houston + 9.5 over San Diego: The wildfires in San Diego will unfortunately have an effect on the Chargers. It’s only human nature. The Bolts should still win the game, but don’t be surprised if they look disjointed.

Tampa Bay -4 over Jacksonville: If this is Donovan McNabb’s last season in Philly, I see three places he could easily end up. In Minnesota with Brad Childress, In Chicago, or in Jacksonville. Why Jacksonville? Because, if a team can cut a black quarterback and replace him with a black quarterback, and then the new quarterback gets hurt and is replaced by another black quarterback, that team has a thing for black quarterbacks. How about this slogan “The Jacksonville Jaguars, the Kim Kardashian of the NFL”?

New England -16 over Washington: I went against the Patriots last week like an idiot. I instilled the always take the Patriots rule and broke it. I’m dumb. I highly doubt the Patriots will look past the Redskins to the Colts. The Pats are on a mission to crush the league, and they look like they will.

San Francisco +2.5 over New Orleans: For some reason I see the Saints coming out and laying an egg this game. They’ve been in a fog for most of the season, and don’t look right.

Green Bay +3 over Denver: I have zero faith in Green Bay’s ability to suddenly discover a running game, but I’m taking them anyways. The weather might be in the 40s on Monday night, which is fine with the Packers.

Tags: NFL, NFL Week 8 Picks, Sports, Free Picks